Quick Changing Weather
Quick changing. That is a good way to describe weather forecast that have BIG changes in them just 24 hours apart. Quick changing for me, is a signal to take a hard look at the weather files and see if there are elements that might cross my path that would be beyond the parameters I set for a good trip. Too windy, too wavy, not windy enough - I have an idea of what is acceptable for my passages and you should too.
It’s also time for me to hop on my soap box and remind people of the six tools you need to have a successful offshore passage.
Time. If you have time and patience you can wait for a window that works. If it feels like you are pushing; you probably should be pausing.
Skill. If you are going to push a questionable departure - do you have the skill onboard to sail well over the course of the whole trip.
Ingenuity. Is there another way? What if? The best sailors are running multiple streams of thought about problem solving and comparing. The more what ifs you run the better you will be at finding ingenious solutions to challenging problems.
Adaptation. There is only so much you can control, and because of that you have to be willing to adapt, change and evolve.
Grit. Not necessarily contrary to what is listed above; you have to have grit. A ship that waits for all dangers to pass never leaves port still rings true.
Money. It takes some. If you have lots of the five other tools listed above you can get away with shockingly little money; but most of you reading this have the kitty to use this tool when you need to. If you or your crew are out of time… don’t push a bad scenario because of the calendar.
Below is a 16 day GFS look of the escape from the Chesapeake. Before writing another day to day look; I encourage you to take a peak at this and leave some comments or questions below. I’ll put together another “big look” note tomorrow - hopefully when things have settled a little bit.
There are a few key moments to look at…
Check out how that nastiness that forms this week descends on the Bahamas and then goes EAST TO WEST across Florida to only then head NE and blow up again at Hatteras.
Departures the week of the 14th look doable - but not particularly pleasant. Winds aren’t too terribly strong, but if you are headed to Bermuda (like I am trying to be) it is an upwind affair.
It is too early to look to the week of the 21st with any detail or certainty - and the information that is available has it looking light; but doable.
Let’s see what the day brings. I’ll do a full write up tonight.