// BLOG
Key West Weather – Let the pattern begin
December 29, 2009
December 28, 2009 10:00 pm EST
Location: 24.46N 81.88W
Wind Direction: N (360°)
Wind Speed: 15.9 knots
Wind Gust: 17.1 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.21 in (1022.9 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.05 in (+1.6 mb)
Air Temperature: 66.4°F (19.1°C)
[ Observed at Sand Key station. ]
I have started my weather data collection for Key West Race Week, presented by Nautica. And I was sitting here writing a weather briefing for Key West Race week, and while I was searching the interweeds for some supporting data for my anecdotal diatribe. Fortunately the good people (they really are) at North Sails have put together a great reference. Check it out below or go to their website. Here is what they have to say and, for what it is worth; it is pretty close to what I would have written, and interestingly the current conditions are almost EXACTLY the conditions we are using for our visualization. I love being lucky.
From the big brains at North Sails:
Very consistent sailing conditions are frequently experienced during Key West Race Week. Often nailing subtle wind shifts is the key to success. The typical Key West weather in January follows a relatively simple and predictable cycle lasting between five and seven days. Predicting individual shifts is difficult, but a general understanding of the weather patterns can be a big help in defining what shifts you will experience.
To understand the cycle, let’s say that the first day of racing finds a recently passed cold front stationary or dying south of the racing area. At the same time, a high pressure center would likely be building in the northern Plains and sweeping toward the southeastern U.S. coastline. This weather pattern often brings cool temperatures and a cloudy sky to Key West. Winds would be northerly with gusty and shifty conditions. The wind speed will normally start the day fresh, say 15 to 20 knots and maybe more, but decrease with time.
On the next day of the cycle, the high would move to the southeastern U.S., positioned almost directly north of Florida. The high in this position weakens the northerly wind, veering it to the northeast. The breeze can be gusty and shifty, but there is a clear easing trend. Big directional swings to the right are often possible, especially during the afternoon.
Days 3 and 4 find the high lingering over the Southeastern U.S and spreading east off the Georgia or northeast Florida coast into the Atlantic. The wind continues veering to the east and sometimes southeast with speeds slowly starting to increase, especially on Day 4. These are the most consistent sailing days, with smaller, oscillating shifts. Temperatures are often seasonable and humidity increases with few clouds in the sky.
Toward the end of this period and moving into Day 5, the high moves off the Southeastern U.S. coast. The wind veers further into the southeast bringing warmer and more humid air. Trade wind cumulus clouds containing isolated showers may pass through the course causing larger oscillations and shifts.
By the end of the cycle, the high moves farther away from Florida to the east. The cycle begins to repeat itself with another cold front possibly threatening Key West from the northern Gulf. Ahead of cold fronts, watch for winds veering farther right and increasing in strength. The weather becomes less stable and there is even the possibility of some squalls and thunderstorms in this pattern.
Keep in mind that there are always exceptions to this cycle and the timing can change. However, the accompanying wind rose graphic shows how this weather cycle relates to historic wind conditions. The wind rose shows historic wind speed and direction frequency near the racing areas during the race period. Notice the N/NNE wind often found during days 1-2 of the cycle is more frequently fresh to strong. Winds tend to moderate when veering to the NE on day 2. Increasingly fresh speeds are apparent as the wind frequently veers from the ENE to ESE on days 3-5. The cycle often repeats after day 5 so the moderate to fresh SE/S winds on a cycle that extends to days 6-7 are less frequent.
If you are planning to race in Key West, you better start watching the weather now! You may be able to see this cycle and become more familiar with it before the race. Also, any unusual weather patterns may give you some hints on how things can vary from the typical weather pattern. Monitoring the Key West weather is easy in the North Sails Weather Center – simply visit www.na.northsails.com and navigate to the North Sails Weather Center. Look specifically at the current and forecast surface weather maps in the weather charts section of the North Sails Blue Weather Center. You can use these charts to see the movement of systems around the region and where you are in the cycle outlined above. Also, use the North Sails Blue Weather Center to monitor wind conditions reported near the race course area. Mostly importantly, sign up for complimentary race weather outlooks and race day forecasts issued by the North Sails Blue Weather Center.
Key West Race Week – Part Four – A Response
December 28, 2009
"STARBOARD! PROTEST! DO YOUR TURNS!"
Most of the responses to this visualization said that this was an easy one, but you should have known it couldn’t be that easy. In order to keep frivolous fouls in check, the rules are written to make both the protested and protesting boats clear a few hurdles.
Starboard certainly had to avoid contact (Rule 14) which violates Rule 10 (On Opposite Tacks). But what is important (and becoming seemingly more so) is how Starboard goes about protesting. Recently it seems that more and more PC’s are working hard to disallow protests before they get to the protest room by being STRICT about the procedural steps. So that brings us to the:
What do we do?
1) Hail “PROTEST”. This needs to be immediate, polite and clear. We should also be VERY clear on who is going to be talking to the other boats on the course. Generally, I would suggest that I’m in the best position to do so, but I am certainly open to discussing this. “Do your turns!”, “Hey, you SOOO fouled us!”, “What the f*&(@@%@^&!!!!! are you thinking!?” are NOT acceptable, and don’t need to even be mentioned (although they often are.) Just a clear “PROTEST” and the boat name or sail number will do.
2) Immediately Fly Flag and fly until we’ve finished. This seems to be the favorite “out” of the protest committees these days. We’ve got about 10 seconds to get the flag displayed. It also pays to have some sort of time mark for when we did it. So, I carry a protest flag in my PFD, in addition to the flag on the backstay/stern rail/etc. We can always pull the more permanent flag when time allows.
Interestingly, this year I acted as the arbitration officer for several big boat events. Often I was told that they flew the flag as soon as the person who was sent to fetch it from the nav table got on deck. Not good enough. I was told once that they flew it about a minute after the incident, once it was clear that everyone was OK. ISAF says you can do better than that. There was only one incident this year that, I witnessed, where a PC (arbitrator actually) said to another party “well, did you KNOW you being protested?” When the answer was yes, we moved forward in spite of some questions about the flag. Point is, we’ll be flying it and leaving it flying from as soon after the incident as possible.
3) Get back to racing. Following the incident we have done what we are required to do at this time. There are a few things that we should do before too long, but right now we need to get back to racing ASAP. Too many teams let an infraction, or the other team’s actions (or inaction) consume the conversation. For the most part, it is time to forget about it and get back to racing.
4) Write down time of hail and incident information. Given how we are structuring our team work, I think that our forward person should be able to draft an incident report immediately after we start racing again. This info is best to get down ASAP so that we can get on with the race and not worry about forgetting important info.
5) Immediately after finishing, hail the RC to declare our intentions to protest. While the SI’s for this race only request that we inform the RC that we intend to protest, some PC will take this request very seriously. This past summer I was racing at an event where the arbitrator was questioning the validity of my protest because the PC didn’t have a record of my hail. Fortunately, I had a witness (from another fleet) that was willing to testify (although it was never necessary). So I also add that we should record the time of our hail and any other hails that we might hear. Finally, we should continue to hail until the RC confirms our hail. I hate being a chatty Cathy on the radio when racing, but it always is a bummer to loose a valid protest on something minor.
6) We also should be looking for witnesses. A witness that saw the incident will make our case MUCH stronger, and knowing who to find back at the dock will make the process MUCH easier. Now is the time to do it.
7) We should as a team review the incident report to confirm that we all agree with what happened and then get ready to race again.
If it seems like a lot – that’s because it is. The key to winning in a protest situation is preparation, and I believe that begins at immediately following any incident.
How about those hails?
You are absolutely right, from a rules standpoint they have no meaning or bearing. There is no required hail of “starboard” or “hold your course” in the rule book. In fact in this situation starboard isn’t required to necessarily hold her course (and she didn’t she bore away) so the hails don’t change the situation. That said, they hails are a good idea. STARBOARD is making it clear to PORT that she doesn’t think the cross is going to happen. PORT is declaring “I’m going for it.” Communication on the course I think can improve the game that is played. It is important though that the communication be clear and not be a distraction. In this case – I think both hails helped; even if they weren’t necessary.
Now, what should THEY do?
Well, they fouled us. It is pretty clear, so what they should do is take a penalty.
According to the SI’s they have the option of either doing a One-Turn Penalty, or taking a 20%. They can do a tack and a gybe in the same direction or they can fly their yellow I flag and carrying on.
Upwind, I think the 20% penalty is worse than the one-turn penalty. So, they need to sail clear of the other competitors (or make sure they are clear of them) and do a tack and gybe in the same direction. A well executed one-turn penalty should be less of a penalty than the 20% would be. So they would have been wise to have practiced that before the regatta started. They should also start their one-turn penalty with a gybe, rather than a tack, use their sails and body weight to aggressively steer the boat through the turn and then get back to racing!
After the race is over, they should find the boat they fouled and make it clear that they they took their penalty. If they DID take a 20% penalty it will be important that they inform the race committee and file within 90 minutes of the RC docking.
So they have plenty to fret about as well.
For some, all of this is more than they want to deal with, and either do not call protest, or don’t follow through with it. I’m of the opinion that there are inadvertent that take place on the race course, and in order to have a fair game, we should enforce them. I just go back to any other game I play – basketball, tennis, squash – if a friend fouls I call it. If those fouls start to impact my game I work to improve.
Have a great day!
Protest Flag
Key West Race Week – Part Four – PROTEST!
December 27, 2009
Can you tell I am getting excited?
Now that we’ve checked the SI’s this seems like a good time to bring up the protest conversation. So here is another visualization to chew on this week (I hope YOU aren’t working).
Visualization Number 4 PROTEST!
On our way up the windward leg we are sailing on starboard tack. A port tack boat is making an effort to cross. We are nearing the port tack layline and we are thinking of tacking ourselves (sound familiar). The boat on port is one that we’ve been battling with all week and it’s close. They are going to go for it. We hail “starboard” at 6 boat lengths, they hail “hold your course.” 10 seconds later we are forced to bear away to avoid hitting their starboard stern quarter. What do we do? What purpose did the hails serve? Are either required? What should they do?
I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Key West Race Week – Part Three – Sailing Instructions
December 27, 2009
I love the Sailing Instructions (SI’s). I think I love the SI’s because by simply reading them you are often better prepared than many of your competitors. I know this, cause on a few occasions I haven’t read them; and almost always been burned because of it did not read them, or read them well enough.
Now thanks to the internet many regattas pre-publish the SI’s and therefore there is NO excuse for not being armed with all the information you need to go racing. Key West Race Week 2010, Presented by Nautica, is no different, and in my first reading I found a few things of interest that should be kept in mind while racing.
Rules
I find section 1.2 a little interesting, only because I don’t know what it means. I’ve made the mistake in the past of saying, “Well if I don’t know it couldn’t be all that important.” I’ll be doing some reading to learn more.
Changes to Sailing Instructions
Well, we know that someone will need to be tasked with checking the board at 0830 every morning to see if there are any changes or announcements.
As well, the RC will make an effort to announce changes on the water (3.2). My experience is that what the RC will say is that the will be running the racing according to the notice posted. Not much help if you didn’t send someone to check it out.
Signals Made Ashore
If the RC hoists the AP flag ashore, which they will announce at 0830 and/or at 0900, then racing cannot start before 90 minutes after AP comes down. Usually it is 60, so this is a “good to know” note that may make the AP down scramble a little less severe.
Schedule of Races
The first start sequence in each circle is scheduled to begin at 1030. The maximum number of races on each day is three. WHEW!
Class Flags/Stickers/Numbers
No numbers for the J80 class, but we will have event stickers to put on.
Courses
There will be leeward gates and windward offset marks. They intend to set the windward offset between 150 and 200 feet from the weather mark, which means that for J80’s there is plenty of time (probably about 10 seconds) from the time we pass the weather mark to the offset that overlaps can be made or broken.
Marks
Windward and leeward marks are tetrahedrons. The offset is an orange ball.
The Start
Any buoy attached to the committee boat should be considered part of the committee boat.
The line will be a line between flags on the two ends of the start line. Meaning they will have line callers at both ends and they will be pretty good at calling OCSs.
Changing the next leg of the course
If the course to the windward leg has been changed, the new mark will be a yellow tetrahedron, unless it is the final leg. In that case the course board will note the course to the finish.
The Finish
The finish line for downwind finishes will be on the opposite side of the committee boat. Upwind it will be well above the weather mark.
Penalties
You can, at the time of the incident, take a 20% by following rule 44.3. You can also do a one-turn penalty, unless it was in the Zone. Then it is the two turn penalty.
In my mind this means that downwind in big breeze you’ll fly your yellow flag for fouling. Upwind – you will likely spin. At the zone…you’re spinning.
Protests
Because we are moored at Stock Island our time limit for delivering a protest is 90 minutes from the time our signal boat docks. Which I would guess is 45 minutes after we finish the last race.
Arbitration
There is arbitration – that’s a good thing.
Scoring
No throw-outs for our classes.
MOB
We are required to conduct an Man OverBoard – that’s a person in the water rescue – procedure in order to comply with ISAF/KWRW regulations. This is also a good idea – but I wonder who else will really do it. (we will)
Radio Communication
We are on channel 74.
OK – this is basically the “Spock” notes for the SI’s. Meaning, when I read the SI’s my eyebrow did the Dr. Spock thing. So I included it. Let me know what you found that was interesting by posting a comment or sending me an email.
Key West Race Week – Part Two – A Response!
December 27, 2009
Thanks to everyone for the great responses! There were some great offline conversations and the responses I’ve included some of those conversations below. I’ve also included two images. The first is The First Cross Visualization and the second is representative of what where I think the windward danger zones are.
NOTE: There was an error is the original visualization. Our heading is not 055M, but rather 305M. That makes a big difference in the thought process. The good thing is that most folks either realized I had made the mistake (the compass makes more sense if you are just ADDING *sigh*) or made an in interesting conclusion that was a good conversation starter.
In the last visualization I asked seven questions;
1) Should we change our set up? 2) What information can each person (helm, spin trimmer, bow) communicate in this situation to help the boat make the right call? 3) What should the two forward positions be concentrating on? 4) Should we tack? 5) Why or why not? 6) In the event that we decide not to tack, if we are in a close crossing situation with another boat, what should we call them across or make them tack? 7) If we do tack, where should we tack?
I think the following conversations should help illuminate most of these questions (responses from readers are italicized)
I do not see a reason to change setup. Btw, what are all the items considered in this category?
I would agree. The differences in the angles is probably due to the left shift that we’ve gotten, and the boats to leeward of us have gotten even more of. Speed and angle the same – so let’s make a note of what our settings are so that if we do make changes we can always come back to our “base” and at the very least match the other boats.
Items in the set up category would be Angle of attack, draft, twist for both sails as well as crew weight position.
I’m expecting everyone to update me on shifts, puffs, waves, traffic, other boat performance above, below and ahead or behind.
I think you are asking for the right information, but I would suggest that you assign information to individuals so that the information you want/need at any given time is always available and you know who to go to for it. If all of the info is up for grabs I find that teams can very easily distract themselves with one thing and the other information gets lost or isn’t available when you need it. I think I said it before, but I have my bow person talking about how we are doing performance wise on the boats to windward, as well as helping track heading info and big picture strategy. Then my spinnaker trimmer (next position back) is calling puffs and lulls as well as waves. What naturally occurs is the puff and lull info is communicated more easily to the helm due to being closer.
Unless we see something desirable to leeward or we get lifted I would tack a few boats above the last to cross to stay with the pack and have clean air.
Interesting. To get lifted here would be a really bad thing. After 8 minutes we are pretty far to the left hand side of the course.
In the diagram to the right, you can see that in the corners we are LOOKING for reasons to tack away from the layline.
Also, we were expecting there to be a left shift – a header. So a lift here, as we near the layline would mean that when we tack (and we WILL need to tack) we will be sailing on a header and all those boats that went right (or we forced to the right) would be gaining – and probably gaining big due to the leverage we built.
But I DO like where you are going with the stay with the pack with clear air thinking. Now what gets important is how do we stay connected with with this fleet.
This is a long race. We want to stay in contact with the majority, pick off boats one by one, and limit our risk. The left shift has come in. We see it on our compass, and we see it in the fact that the majority of the competition is cashing in on the shift. So in order for us to gain on the boats that are slightly ahead of us, we would need to realize MORE left shift beyond the competition. Nothing that has been presented (which we could interpret as nothing that we KNOW) says that there is more shift to the left. In fact 3/4’s of the pack we are racing think there’s little left to tap in the left. So I think there are a lot of factors that are screaming tack. But tack BEFORE the fleet crosses us rather than after.
Where are we on the course? After eight minutes we’ve probably sailed pretty far into the left hand side of the course. In fact, we’ve probably sailed about 4800 feet. In the simplest (and often the best) tactical thinking you want to sail the tack that takes you closer to the mark. At this point the other tack is pointed more directly at the mark. Simple racing principle – sail AT the next mark.
By allowing the majority of the fleet to cross us here, we put ourselves closer to the layline than our competition. Generally, we want to herd our competition towards the laylines and save the middle for ourselves in order to keep our options open. So if we duck here, then we are allowing the competition to sail to the middle while we sail to the edge. Simple racing principle – avoid the laylines.
By ducking, we’ve conceded to the other boats that they are ahead. We’ve committed to going away from the other boats in an effort to get ahead of them. So now we are gambling and every second we separate we are building risk. Conversely if we tack, we stay with our competition, if later, we decide that the edge really holds the pot of gold; we can head to it later. Simple racing principle – stick with the competition.
Monitor and adjust – We are luck to have the bulk of the fleet going the way we want and just a couple of boats going the other way. It is early, in the race, so this is one of those great opportunities to see who gets paid in this situation without risking our own bacon. By watching where the other two boats end up at the weather mark we can make an informed decision on the next weather leg.
So with all of that added up, I’d say that we tack.
Also, one of the questions was if we are going to tack, where should do it? Well, I would argue that this is a time to execute the safe leeward tack. In other words we want to tack ahead and to leeward of the boats to the left. We want to maintain a clear air “lane” and maintain the ability to tack back if we choose to. We also don’t want to tack so early that there is a lane between us and the fleet we are sticking with. That’s just too attractive to the boats we might have to duck who are coming out of the right hand corner.
OK, more to come this week.
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